ANZ:明年实物黄金消费需求将逐步降温
关键字：实物黄金
澳新银行(ANZ)周一(12月2日)表示，今年中国实物金需求成为拯救黄金的“最后一根稻草”，其有效的抵消了黄金ETF持仓外流以及印度黄金消费回落等负面因素，不过，预计2014年该国的黄金进口将逐步降温。
该行商品策略师Victor Thianpiriya在日内报告中指出，“中长期来看，中国实际利率走高以及黄金资本回报率下跌都将削弱其保值的魅力，因此明年中国大陆从香港进口的黄金规模很可能缩减。”
报告数据显示，澳新银行预计今年中国大陆从香港进口的黄金规模料将达到1050公吨，而2014年将回落10%至900公吨。这表明中国明年依然将蝉联全球头号黄金消费的冠军宝座。
此前由于印度政府不断出台限制黄金进口的举措，以抑制经常帐赤字走宽，加之该国卢比持续走软，印度三季度实物金需求早已大不如前，将头号黄金消费国的称号拱手相让给中国。
另外，Thianpiriya也表示，“金价曾在今年6月跌破1200美元关口，当时的确触发了大量的实物金消费，然而这样同样消耗了未来的部分需求。因此当金价再度跌至1200美元下方后，实物金需求肯定不会像上半年那般强势。”
他最后补充道，“今年前三季度的投资者需求就已经触及780公吨，超过去年全年数据。不过，此次投资者需求上升只是对金价暴跌的暂时回应，随着投资者逐渐变得谨慎起来，该需求将出现回落。”
数据显示，中国总需求的90%由黄金零售投资需求，包括黄金珠宝及实物金条。另外虽然中国是全球最大的产金国，但该国的黄金消费仍依靠70%的进口满足。
澳新银行将2014年黄金均价预估自1436美元/盎司下调至1269美元/盎司。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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