对于黄金来说 通胀或是“双刃剑”
关键字：黄金 通胀
巴克莱银行(Barclays)近日在报告中写道，预计美国通胀率将持续上行，而这对黄金而言是个十分积极的利好因素。巴克莱的逻辑在于，物价的上扬会让人们重拾黄金这一古老的保值避险工具，从而带动黄金的买盘。
不过他们可能忽视了另外一个情况：当前，美国通胀过低，温和的通胀正是美联储梦寐以求的。
2012年1月，美联储将核心PCE年率涨幅2%定为长期通胀目标，从此宣告美联储也有了明确的通胀目标。如果核心PCE年率升幅超过2%，美联储会紧缩货币政策，这将利好美元而利空黄金。
而本周四凌晨公布的纪要文件透露出一个倾向：美联储官员可能更在意数据的长期表现而非短期。目前拦在美联储面前的，无非就是就业和通胀，从近期的数据表现来看，就业不断回升已成趋势，通胀迟迟未能达标倒成了美联储的“心头大患”
所以，美国温和通胀上行将有助于美联储达成其政策目标，进而可能让美联储及早结束QE或是确定加息时间点，这将对黄金产生利空影响。
目前看来，美国通胀上升对黄金是一把“双刃剑”：可能带动保值避险的买盘涌入推高金价，也可能使得美联储下定决心收紧政策进而打压黄金。
整日的盘整的确让人昏昏欲睡，周末乌克兰大选恐将对市场产生一定影响，然而黄金是否能被激起波澜仍需观察，或许黄金的命运之时不会很快到来，但它一定会来，交易者仍需耐心等待。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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