熊傲君：杰克逊年会成关键，鲍威尔或透露加息线索
关键字：杰克逊年会演讲，美联储主席鲍威尔
导语：在近段时间美国经济数据持续发挥出色的情况下，美联储在过去两周里面不断上调了加息的预期，因为通胀水平现阶段离目标水平还存在一定的距离，所以实现软着陆希望越来越大的局面下，美联储可以保持更长时间的高利率水平，这也是黄金大幅走弱的原因。不过，来到本周后似乎出现了一些转机，因为目前市场认为美联储主席鲍威尔将会在全球央行年会当中释放保守的言论。
鲍威尔释放美联储态度
本周的重点无疑是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊年会当中的讲话，大家都期待能够在十分钟的言论当中找到更多关于加息的线索，尤其是年底会不会再加息一次。这对于整个金融市场来说都是至关重要的，因为如果继续抬升利率水平的话，无疑会使得最近本就强势的美元和美债收益率进一步走高，那么黄金有可能会正式宣告跌破1900大关。相反，假如鲍威尔冷却市场情绪，淡化加息可能性的话，金价或者就会迎来短期反弹的良好机会。
美债收益率创15年新高
美元和美债收益率近期的强劲表现也是黄金震荡下行的主要因素，尤其是美债收益率创出了近15年以来的新高，债市正在酝酿一场大溃败，因市场担心美联储将在更长时间内维持更高利率，以及政府财政赤字将扩大。此外，美元也是成功走出了近十周的高位，不过两者本周都有所回落，所以让金价在全球央行年会之前得以小幅回升至1900上方。
时间已经马上要进入到2023年的9月份，这次全球央行年会的鲍威尔讲话以及美联储9月的利率决议将会直接决定今年最后冲刺阶段的加息步伐，也是影响黄金价格能否在年尾重拾光芒的关键时刻。因此，投资者需要继续跟进美联储的内部态度，以及近期的美国经济数据表现，尤其是还有下周公布的非农数据。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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