林幽沃：七月美联储议息会议说了些什么？
现货黄金触碰1258-60区间后开展了2天的调整，在昨日下探至短期低点1244附近支撑小幅反弹后等待美联储7月议息决议的发布。最终在凌晨时段，美联储决定维持当前利率，金价冲破1260关口，重拾强劲的多头走势。接下来我们看一下美联储在昨日的声明中向市场传达了些什么信息。
1，加息
在本次利率决议中美联储没有开展加息行动，符合市场预期，而在声明中美联储一如既往地对美国未来经济上行有信心，当中的措辞表达出经济数据将在未来逐渐回暖。但需注意，在本次发表的声明中没有提及到下次加息的预期，下次美联储议息会议是在9月份，市场暂时预测加息概率偏低。
2，就业
通过近期的非农就业数据就可以看出，失业率处在历史低位，就业市场在饱和的状态下依然有不错的增长。相信在美国的就业问题上，美联储也相对比较安心，接下来只要能够维持就业人数的平稳地增长与保持失业率在5%以下，以此作为基石将会使美国经济一步一步向上退高。
3，通胀
如果说就业数据令美联储安心，那现时低迷的通胀率就是美联储的最大隐患。在就业岗位不断扩张与就业人数不断增加的状况下，通胀率依然持续低迷，这也使近期无论是耶伦或众多美联储官员所表达到担心的因素。声明也承认短期内难以到达2%的通胀，表明在通胀达到目标前，美联储诸多收缩货币政策都要暂时停下，这段讲话成为最大的鸽派发言。
4，资产负债表
对于6月耶伦提出会在年内尽快出炉美联储资产负债表缩减行动的具体细节，现时已经过去1个月有多，但在本次的议息会议上，声明中还是提及到当前仍然会进行到期证券本金再投资，说明暂时还是没有关于“缩表”的具体细节，这一方面还需继续关注9月与12月的议息会议。
更多有关七月美联储议息会议，需要等待8月份的纪要透露更多的细节。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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