熊傲君：美联储坚决抗通胀，金价短期难有起色
关键词：美联储加息，美国通胀水平
导语：下半年的黄金价格走势可谓十分低迷，直至目前位置还是整体节奏依然偏弱，尽管上周出现小幅回升，但就在刚刚结束的全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔再次释放鹰派的言论，为了控制高通胀的风险而不惜一切代价，这意味着加息政策仍将维持，使得黄金价格在周线收官之际重新回落，后市或延续下探的风险。
虽然美联储今年已经进行了多次加息，而且在过去两个月里还连续加息了75个基点，但丝毫没有动摇美联储继续高通胀的决心，在杰克逊霍尔会议上美联储主席鲍威尔表明将坚持政策不转向。即使可能会牺牲一定的就业市场数据，但也在所不惜，之前的通胀数据也有所降温，不过离目标仍有很大的距离，所以不能在此时停止加息的脚步，因此对黄金而言，短期毫无疑问还存在极大的施压力度。
造成金价维持弱势的主要原因，是由于美元指数近段时间的表现实在太强劲，而造成美元走高的因素除了美联储保持激进加息以外，欧元上周跌至20年来的低点也是非常重要的利好。欧洲现在通货膨胀接近两位数，这在很大程度上是由持续的俄乌冲突而产生的能源危机推动，不仅如此，英国的物价压力已经接近40年高位，导致英镑面临重大压力，所以美元在众星拱月下势不可挡。
如无意外美联储在9月份的利率决议当中继续保持大力度加息，目前唯一悬念是到底加息75个基点还是50个基点，但无论如何，只要在加息的周期上，黄金价格还是难以走出可观的趋势。由此可见，在2022年剩下的时间里，金价要想大幅反弹的难度将会变大，多头的空间恐怕需要谨慎关注，除非市场出现突发性因素。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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